Hormuz deal ‘close’: What’s the latest on each side’s positions?

Iran says a deal with Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is “on the verge of being finalised” after both countries confirmed they had agreed coordinates for shipping routes through the critical waterway.

The strait links the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman with Oman and the United Arab Emirates on one side and Iran on the other. It flows through the territorial waters of Iran and Oman with some of its outskirts in UAE waters.

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It has become a major flashpoint in the war between Iran and the United States because one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are shipped through it in peacetime. Iran closed the strait after the US and Israel began strikes on Iran at the end of February, sending oil prices spiralling and causing havoc in global energy markets.

In recent weeks, negotiations have been under way to arrive at an agreement that would restore a ceasefire and reopen the strait.

Here’s what we know:

When will the agreement be announced?

It is unclear when a deal will be announced, but on Wednesday, Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei signalled that Tehran and Muscat were close to finalising an agreement on a new commercial shipping corridor through the strait.

Baghaei told reporters the negotiations between Iran and Oman were “moving forward” and highlighted that “if certain third parties do not obstruct the process, the two countries are also in the final stage of reviewing and drafting a joint statement covering the main points of agreement” in an apparent reference to recent US strikes on Iran.

Talks between Iran and Oman began after Washington and Tehran signed a June 17 memorandum of understanding (MoU) that is supposed to be a framework for a peace agreement. The MoU stipulated that Iran would ensure the strait would be open to shipping for at least 60 days, but it fell apart last month. The two countries primarily disagreed on which routes ships should take, and Iran attacked several ships that had taken an Oman-approved route that was backed by the US.

Baghaei said on Wednesday that the talks with Oman covered the technical, legal, security and environmental aspects of the proposed shipping corridor.

(Al Jazeera)

Baghaei has dismissed claims that a bilateral agreement with Oman would automatically lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

A potential deal with Oman, he stated, “cannot in itself be interpreted as meaning the waterway has become safe for passing vessels”, arguing that the main source of instability remained the US and its naval deployments, maritime blockade of Iranian ports and other “hostile measures against the country [Iran] and its interests”.

Will an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz mean peace between the US and Iran?

No, far from it.

Once an agreement on the strait is reached, broader peace talks could begin again. Furthermore, it is unclear whether an agreement over Hormuz would be temporary and whether future arrangements for shipping through the waterway would need to be further hammered out.

Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Mahmoud Abdelwahed said a deal on the Strait of Hormuz does not mean an “end to the crisis”.

“These discussions are now at the final drafting stage, pending a joint final statement,” he said. “But Iranian officials argue that these discussions are exclusively with Oman, without any foreign or outside interference.”

“On the other hand, Washington rejects reports suggesting that Iran would have control over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and they say that any temporary route should not require any permits, approvals or fees,” he noted.

“So while a final agreement on a temporary route in the Strait of Hormuz is now in the making, the dispute remains unresolved. That means that any agreement on a shipping route in the Strait of Hormuz does not necessarily mean the end to the crisis,” he added.

What do we know about each side’s positions?

What Iran wants

While Tehran has said it has agreed on the coordinates for shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, Iran also continues to insist it is negotiating only with Oman, not directly with Washington, and maintains that Iran and Oman should jointly manage the strait according to their respective territorial waters and they should retain control of navigation there.

Iran has also stated that it will not reopen the strait until the US naval blockade of its ports is lifted.

On Wednesday, Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, told Iran’s IRNA state news agency that an understanding between Tehran and Muscat is that large parts of the shipping route would go through Iran’s territorial waters and some parts would pass through Oman’s waters.

While existing temporary routes would be closed, the new inbound and outbound shipping routes would be used for two to four months or potentially longer, Gharibabadi said.

Furthermore, Iran has intimated that it plans to introduce some form of fee system for ships. Under international maritime law, tolls for passage cannot be levied on international straits, such as Hormuz, but coastal states may charge for services they provide, such as navigational assistance, pilotage and environmental protection.

What the US wants

US officials have said President Donald Trump’s administration wants total freedom of commercial navigation through the waterway without Iranian tolls or any arrangement requiring ships to obtain Tehran’s approval before transiting the strait.

A US official familiar with the negotiations told The Associated Press news agency this week that any temporary arrangement would not involve Iranian approval for ships to transit or charges for using the waterway. The official said Washington remained committed to restoring the previous system in which “no party controls the lanes or the ability to transit through them”.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, Trump rejected any suggestion that Iran should be allowed to charge vessels using the strait.

“I’m not going to let them charge,” he said. “Anybody’s going to charge, we’ll charge.”

Eight of the world’s largest shipping associations have also urged the United Nations to oppose tolls in the Strait of Hormuz amid reports that Iran and Oman are nearing a deal to manage the critical waterway.

In a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and the head of the International Maritime Organization that was sent on Monday and made public on Wednesday, the groups said allowing authorities to charge vessels to transit the strait would violate international norms and harm the global economy.

What Oman wants

Chris Featherstone, a political scientist at the University of York, told Al Jazeera that for Oman, this deal is an opportunity to bring some stability to the region.

“They were involved in mediating negotiations between the US and Iran prior to this new phase of the conflict, and these new negotiations could represent a return of stability to the region. Similarly, this could establish stepping stones for future negotiations between Washington and Tehran,” he said.

Have Iran and the US made concessions?

Both sides are thought to be showing willingness to make some concessions.

Quoting a senior Iranian source involved in the negotiations on Tuesday, the Reuters news agency reported that Tehran has already dropped its original demand for full control over shipping in both directions but is “unlikely to change its position” further.

Featherstone said Iran has been consistent in demanding that it retains some control over the Strait of Hormuz, and in saying that they do not want to see a return to the pre-conflict context.

“Iran has maintained its position with a lot of consistency, and this has contrasted to the Trump administration’s lack of a clear goal for the conflict and lack of a route out of the current conflict,” he said.

Quoting a senior Iranian official, however, Iranian Press TV said on Tuesday that the talks aim to establish a new “middle corridor” through the Strait of Hormuz that would eventually replace the existing northern and southern routes while ensuring safe navigation and protecting what it described as “Iran’s rights as a coastal state”.

Meanwhile, US officials have repeatedly stated that they will not accept any arrangement for the waterway that would leave Iran in control. But analysts said it is likely the US will have to compromise on this.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera on Wednesday that the global energy crisis means Washington’s priority is ensuring ships can pass safely rather than preventing Iran from playing any role in administering the strait.

If reopening the strait requires acknowledging that Iran possesses some capacity to regulate traffic in waters along its coast, Washington “should not reject an agreement merely because it fails to preserve the appearance of unqualified American dominance”, he said.

David Des Roches, a former director of Arabian Peninsula affairs in the US Department of Defense, said any eventual agreement was, therefore, likely to reflect the reality that Iran cannot simply be excluded from managing a waterway on its coast.

“I think that the rough outlines of a deal are that Iran would deny free international passage in areas of its territorial waters,” Des Roches said. “I think that’s probably about the best that can be reached at this point in time.”

What might each side get out of the deal?

Sina Azodi, assistant professor of Middle East Politics at George Washington University, told Al Jazeera on Wednesday that the understanding Iran and Oman are working towards represents both a diplomatic compromise and a recognition of Iran’s strategic influence in the Gulf.

Azodi said he doubts the status of the Strait of Hormuz will ever return to how it was before the US-Israel war on Iran began.

“The Iranians have learned that by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, they can make the global economy scream,” he said. “This is a strategic asset, and I don’t think they will let go of it easily.”

However, he said Oman has been a “very helpful, trustworthy mediator” between Iran and the US, helping to move towards the eventual reopening of the waterway.

“Oman’s role has always been very positive,” Azodi said. “The Iranians trust Oman. The Americans trust Oman.”

Simon Mabon, a professor of international politics at Lancaster University in the United Kingdom, said that for the US, the Hormuz deal is very serious because there are concerns about what this could look like for other parts of the world and whether any deal would then set in motion a series of approaches that could lead to the further disruption of global trade.

“For the US, it’s about getting things open and getting oil and trade flowing and trying to bring down costs essentially. But whether they can do that while keeping their strategic goals on Iran in line is tricky,” he told Al Jazeera.

“But I think the Iranians have got the upper hand. If they’re able to get the blockade [of Iranian ports] lifted, then they’re in a very, very strong position,” he added.